|
The Bio-index model is a forecasting model for predicting the outcome of U.S. Presidential Elections based on biographical information about candidates. The model, developed by J. Scott Armstrong and Andreas Graefe and first published in the ''Journal of Business Research'',〔Armstrong, J. S., Graefe, A. (2011), (Predicting elections from biographical information about candidates: A test of the index method ), ''Journal of Business Research'', 66 (7), 699-706〕 uses 59 biographical cues that are expected to have an impact on the chances of a candidate on being elected. == Background == There is a large stream of research in the field of psychology that analyzes questions such as "what makes people emerge as leaders?"〔Antonakis John (2011), Predictors of leadership: The usual suspects and the suspect traits. In A. Bryman, D. Collinson, K. Grint, B. Jackson, M. Uhl-Bien (Eds.),'' Sage Handbook of Leadership'', Thousand Oaks: Sage Publications, 2011, pp. 269-285.〕 For example, meta-analyses found intelligence and height to have a positive impact on both leader performance and leader emergence. Such findings from prior research were used to identify and code the majority of variables in the bio-index. In addition, for some variables, the authors used common sense. For example, it was assumed that a candidates are more attractive to voters if they are married but not divorced. In general, the model distinguishes two types of variables: # ''Yes / No variables'' (n=48): For this type of variable, candidates are assigned a score of 1 if they possess a certain attribute and 0 otherwise. For example, a candidate receives positive scores if he descends from a political family, is first-born, single child, lost a parent in childhood, is married but not divorced, has children, graduated from a prestigious college, held political offices, has authored a book, or has military experience. # ''Comparative variables'' (n=11): For this type of variable, the candidates of the two major parties are compared on the underlying attribute. The candidate who scores better than his opponent is assigned a score of 1 and 0 otherwise. For example, candidates who are taller, heavier, better-looking, more intelligent or have the more common name than their opponent receive a positive score while their opponent received a score of 0 for these variables. After all variables have been coded, the total index scores for each candidate are calculated. Then, the candidate who achieves the higher overall score is predicted as the election winner.〔 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「Bio-index model」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
|